History suggests that equities struggle to make gains ahead of US mid-term elections. With anti-trade rhetoric likely to feature in this autumn’s campaign, this time is unlikely to be different. On the other hand, we have also learnt to be prepared for the opposite with President Trump.
For a sector accustomed to getting headlines for its stellar growth and equity returns, the past few weeks have felt a bit different for technology companies. It's time to take stock, think about what we’ve learnt and revisit our bullish macro case for the sector. In short, however, I still like tech.
Having worked as an equity strategist for well over a decade, I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve had the debate on ‘what happens to equities when bond yields go up?’. And for most of that time bond yields were in the ice age and falling! To cut down on some future deja-vu, here's my Top 7 list of things to consider about equities when bond yields go up.
The American midterm elections are approaching and the crystal ball gazing has begun. Here’s what investors should consider regardless of whether the US votes for a ‘distilled Donald’, the ‘Democratic double’ or a ‘divided democracy’.
A sharp slowdown in US earnings growth looks likely next year. Perhaps the more important question to answer is where will S&P 500 earnings growth settle after the effect of tax reform, fiscal stimulus and oil price movements drops out?
Will 2019 be the year the US finally decides to repair its crumbling infrastructure? Probably not. Nevertheless, in the Asset Allocation team we have bought a basket of stocks that are exposed to US public infrastructure spending. Confused? Let me explain.
While I still like tech, there are two 'R's in particular that I worry about: recession and regulation. Focusing on regulation, the risk is real, but is the market too concerned about it?