Earlier this year, the UK economy appeared to be warming up nicely, and a May rate hike was on the cards. But has March’s cold snap changed all this?
After a tricky month for Prime Minister Theresa May, parliament is in recess and the clock is ticking away for a Brexit deal. What sort of deal might the UK get, and what should we be looking out for?
Following the EU referendum, financial markets initially expected the worst, with the weakness of the pound the clearest indication of deteriorating sentiment. And yet, many saw the depreciation as an opportunity for the economy to rebalance away from consumer spending and towards more trade. With this in mind, how successful has the UK been?
With so much still up in the air regarding Brexit, making predictions is difficult – particularly about the future. But we can prepare for a range of different outcomes and market environments, pruning our ‘probability tree’ as events evolve. Here’s our latest scenario analysis.
“We trust that the government will take all the appropriate actions” – Jean-Claude Trichet. Mario Draghi. That was the sign-off for the now infamous ECB letter sent to Silvio Berlusconi’s government during the height of the European sovereign debt crisis. Nearly seven years on, Italy has once again experienced financial market turmoil and the ECB this week will no doubt be asked many questions about the situation.
I'm not sure exactly why Queen's "Don't stop me now" has been stuck in my head...something to do with football and wishing not to get knocked out maybe...we were having such a good time! Anyway, as I say in this Sky News interview on the Ian King Show, only a big shock would stop the Bank of England from hiking in August. I also discuss the merits of the new monthly GDP data.
Forget the debates about nationality – the next ECB chief’s most important quality will be their ability to keep the show on the road in the next crisis.