I’m passionate about macro investing. As long as the markets are open, I don’t think about much else. Some people call it passion, others call it addiction.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out” (Warren Buffett, 2001). In bull markets, market risk is often the most important driver of performance. However, we should pay attention to bottom-up investors in both equity and credit markets as they can add value in spotting turning points and identifying areas where investors may find themselves overexposed.
A US recession in 2020 is our best estimate, but this forecast is far from a slam dunk. Could it arrive later? And what might this mean for equity markets?
One-day corrections of 3% are always painful, especially so when investors have become so accustomed to low volatility after almost a decade-long bull market. We see the move as most likely a technical sell-off (famous last words) and believe it is probably too early to buy the dip.
The world may be caught in a ‘Thucydides Trap’, where US leadership is challenged by a rising power – China. This creates many challenges for investors. But what could it mean for the technology sector?
The rise of populism is driving a new political paradigm. But what does this mean for markets? Could more volatility and higher risk premia across asset classes be round the corner?
Equities tend to rally into year end, and particularly in years with US midterm elections. While this could easily be a statistical fluke, the Asset Allocation team sees fundamental reasons to buy stocks at this point and is now moving positive on the asset class on a tactical basis.