Asset allocation focused content from our sister site Macro Matters
Political risk is back with a vengeance in Italy. As the third largest global issuer of government bonds after the US and Japan, the country is too big to be allowed to fail without severe contagion to the global financial system. However, it is also too big to bail out comfortably using tried and tested mechanisms.
The ‘yield curve’ has flattened significantly. This is worrying both investors and some Fed members given its track record of anticipating recessions. But has the yield curve become a less timely predictor in recent cycles?
Yesterday, US central bank chairman Jerome Powell told rates to take a hike. While the move was widely expected, are there longer-term ramifications?
As the global economy moves towards late cycle, ensuring that multi-asset portfolios remain suitable for investors means managing a whole range of risks.
Understanding how the mind can help or hinder investment success is a cornerstone of fund management and helps me in everyday life too. One of my idols, Daniel Kahneman, said the aim should be to make it part of everyday chats, so we've recorded an episode for our podcast where we try to do just that.
Last year's market darling, Argentina, now finds itself in a vicious cycle of a weakening currency, rate hikes, lower growth and higher debt. So how can the country avoid a liquidity crisis turning into a full-blown crisis?
With US inflation picking up much more slowly than expected in recent years, markets seem to be ignoring the cyclical risks. We think that's a mistake and one that could come back to bite investors. Here's a chance to find out why and what we're doing about it...
The US Senior Loan Officer Survey is signalling low recession risk, but how reliable is this indicator?