The recent soft patch in growth and dovish shift from the Fed has made it less likely that the US enters recession next year.
A sharp slowdown in US earnings growth looks likely next year. Perhaps the more important question to answer is where will S&P 500 earnings growth settle after the effect of tax reform, fiscal stimulus and oil price movements drops out?
US profits are booming, but could be set to change radically. We believe that an earnings recession is almost inevitable in 2020, even if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can engineer a soft landing.
The US Senior Loan Officer Survey is signalling low recession risk, but how reliable is this indicator?
US households have apparently been saving far more than we realised. Could this affect how much longer the economic cycle lasts?