Given our longer-term views around the structural challenges facing the global economy, we struggle to see how inflation can rise meaningfully for any prolonged period of time. That said, while cyclical improvement does not override secular forces, a period of synchronised global growth is challenging the consensus narrative that inflation ‘volatility’ is dead.
The yield-curve boy is crying wolf, raising recession fears. But the villagers at central banks have responded to dangers already.
Forget the debates about nationality – the next ECB chief’s most important quality will be their ability to keep the show on the road in the next crisis.
The US central bank has made a dramatic about-turn in its policy stance. We look at what this means for the US economy and markets.
We expect the market and macroeconomic environment this year to be determined by the degree to which tightening financial conditions impact heavily indebted borrowers.
The European Central Bank’s programme of quantitative easing looks to be almost over. Should European credit investors be worried or encouraged?
How is Brexit impacting the Bank of England's reaction function? For my latest thoughts, here is a clip from CNBC.
The prime minister promised an “end to austerity” at the Conservative party conference. And the falling budget deficit does imply that the Chancellor has some wiggle room to spend more in Monday’s Budget. But will he use it?