Fixed income commentary
Physical gilts have generally offered a yield pick-up over equivalent swap-based exposure. Yet this premium has declined over the past two years as pension funds have continued to invest heavily in gilts to match liabilities. Let's consider how much this premium might have to fall for investors to swap bonds for swaps.
What happens when babyboomers retire? Have we saved enough for retirement or are we living beyond our means? Academics argue high savings by prime-aged babyboomers in their 'summer' have depressed real interest rates in recent decades. But the community is split as to what happens next as 'winter' comes.
My title, of course, refers to the 50-year maturity point of the conventional gilt curve rather than the 30-year. A preference for fifty years is certainly how the market's voting machine currently sees things. But how can changes in the longer end of the gilt curve impact LDI hedging strategies?
The US yield curve has consistently flattened since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy several years ago. History strongly suggests that this is an entirely normal market reaction to a rate hiking cycle. If short-term interest rates continue to rise at the pace we expect, we could well be looking at an inverted curve by the middle of 2019.
The UK inflation-linked government bond ('linker') market is dominated by vast UK defined benefit pension schemes. Derisking by schemes tends to increase demand for linkers as equity prices rise, pushing up their prices. For multi-asset investors seeking diversification, that could make them less attractive to buy.
The revised Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was finally signed in March - over a year after President Trump removed the United States as a signatory. We take a quick look at how much emerging markets depend on the US as a trading partner.
The rise in yields has accelerated, equity market volatility has spiked, and the bond vigilantes are stirring. Should we be worried?
‘Dry January’ might be over, but the number of young teetotallers is rising. So why are millennials giving alcohol a miss? And what does this trend mean for investors?